Will Google own the smartphone market?

In the end, Google and Android will own the smartphone market. It won’t happen this year and it may not even happen in 2012 but the day is coming when the de facto standard for smartphones.

Multiple manufacturers have reported that Android phones are on the way including up to five from Motorola this quarter and a number from Samsung this year. Google also has a number of handsets in for testing and should be rolling them out after the Nexus One.

While product in pipeline is also nice, I think the real value is in the software. At CES we saw Dell and Lenovo releasing Android phones running Android but without – and this is important – major Google branding or applications. This is, in the end, why Android will soon rule the roost: carriers can remove functions as it sees fit, thereby creating entirely new versions of the OS and UI for their own purposes.

The only problem? Google’s control of the OS pipeline. Various sources have complained that Google controls which OS version various manufacturers are allowed to use and the result is a segmented market with potentially fractured OS trees. However, in the end, the carriers and the manufacturers have control over the OS.

What’s going to happen to also-rans like Windows Mobile? I suspect manufacturers will roll mobile features into future desktop/laptop OSes, leading to a convergence of functionality for mobile Windows devices into Windows 7. Why have a dumbed down Windows Mobile when most devices are powerful enough to run a version of Windows 7? Microsoft is not out of the game, but as a mobile OS provider their days are numbered.

After reading the article by John Biggs over at MobileCrunch I couldn’t help myself from posting a short follow up to get your opinions. Lets take a quick look at where Android is going and what I feel is the major problem for the rapidly growing mobile operating system.

As you know Android handsets are popping up left and right from manufacturers almost too fast to keep up with. This does prove that adoption levels are high and like John Biggs states, the Android market share is booming. So what is the problem you may be asking? The problem is that Android is facing major segmentation problems which are causing developers to struggle to keep up with making sure applications are compatible. Like Symbian and Windows Mobile, manufacturers are adding their own user interface look and feel, which I have no problem with. This does cause confusion with consumers but is not an underlying problem. The real problem is that applications are not working on all phones even though they could be running the very same version of Android.

Anytime a platform is tweaked to the point that it’s core has fundamentally been changed and this breaks application compatibility there is a big problem. Nokia has had this problem for years and to this day is a very sore spot for many Symbian fans. When we buy a smartphone with a mobile OS we expect to be able to run any applications that were written for that mobile platform. We don’t however expect to have to check to see if our phone model is on the “supported phone” list. When I refer to segmentation this is exactly what I mean. While I may be alone with this feeling I would love to hear what you have to say. Is this a problem at all or will Android continue to grow and take over the mobile industry as everybody seems to be forecasting?

The gates are open.